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09/07/2010 -
INDIANAPOLIS (AP) - Dallas Clark knows there is no such thing as a perfect game or a perfect season in the NFL.
The goal is to keep improving, no matter what the record-breaking stats suggest.
So after posting the two best seasons ever by a Colts tight end, back-to-back, Clark has returned to Indy to chase perfection.
``I'm doing the same thing that I've been doing the last seven years,'' Clark said during the offseason. ``I come to work, and I don't want to become complacent. I'm not trying to focus on what I did last year. Each year, whether it's bad or good, you have to look at it as a fresh start.''
Clark was so busy working out Monday that he didn't even have time to answer questions in the locker room.
But starting over isn't exactly what the Colts have in mind for the new dad.
Almost from the moment Indy drafted Clark with the 24th overall pick in 2003, Peyton Manning & Co. could see how valuable Clark could be in this high-scoring offense.
He's fast enough to burn defenses daring to cover him with a linebacker, agile enough to make circus catches, and shifty enough to fake out anyone measuring him up for big hits. It's a rare combination for a 252-pound guy, which is also why Clark is among the NFL's best tight ends.
Since signing a six-year, $36 million contract in 2008, Clark has proven to be worth every penny.
Over the last two seasons, he has 177 receptions, produced the first 1,000-yard season of his career, become the second tight end in NFL history to haul in 100 catches in a season, and, yes, even earned that elusive first Pro Bowl trip. His numbers broke the franchise records John Mackey set in the '60s.
Clark played a key role in the Colts' Super Bowl run in 2006, and his versatility to split out as a receiver and create mismatches is one of the reasons Indy is so proficient in the no-huddle offense.
Not bad for a former college walk-on who needed seasons to learn all of the nuances of Indy's offense. His new job is to teach the rest of his four-man gang his old tricks.
``He's one of the best, if not the best, in the league,'' backup tight end Jacob Tamme said Monday. ``Our offense gives the tight end a chance to do some things, and that's been really instrumental in what he's done and what we've done.''
Clearly, the Colts are loaded in the passing game.
Manning, the only four-time MVP in league history, will spend this season distributing the ball to perhaps the most talented receiving corps he's ever had. There's Clark and Pro Bowl receiver Reggie Wayne, emerging contributors in Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon and former first-round pick Anthony Gonzalez.
Add Tamme and rookie Brody Eldridge to the mix, and the toughest job for the Colts might be keeping everyone happy.
``All I wanted was what was promised to me,'' Gonzalez said Monday when asked about the competition for the No. 2 receiver's job. ``Whether a job is open, whether there's a competition is something that is determined by the coaches, not by the players.''
The only other real question is health.
Gonzalez lost his job as Wayne's complementary receiver after going down with a season-ending injury in the first quarter of last season's season-opener. He pulled a hamstring in the offseason but now says he's healthy heading into Sunday's opener at Houston.
Clark, however, missed the entire preseason because of an undisclosed upper left leg injury. That left most of the snaps to Tamme, a three-year veteran, and Eldridge, who is considered more of a blocking tight end than a Clark clone.
Colts coach Jim Caldwell hasn't said whether Clark will start against the Texans, but Clark practiced Monday and has ``guaranteed'' he will be on the field this weekend.
So what does Clark have planned for an encore?
Stay tuned.
``That's the beauty of football. There's no such thing as a perfect game,'' he said. ``You can never relax, you're always trying to stay on top of your game.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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