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09/07/2010 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With 28 days left in the regular season, the American League Cy Young award is still up for grabs. It seems the New York Yankees' CC Sabathia is considered the leading candidate, although I think there's another pitcher who has been head and shoulders above the entire field.
There has been a lot of debate on how closely a pitcher's win total should be considered in the Cy Young voting, with contender Felix Hernandez having only 11 victories at this point. I think the story behind Hernandez having so few wins, despite his tremendous numbers otherwise, is really the untold story so far.
Hernandez is pitching for one of the worst offensive teams in the history of the game, and that has had a major impact on his win total. Once you examine the numbers, it doesn't take much to see that "King Felix" has clearly been the best pitcher in the AL. To me, it's a no-brainer.
The Mariners are on pace to score the fewest runs in a season since the inception of the designated hitter in 1973. Seattle is averaging 3.2 runs per game, and actually has produced almost those very same numbers (3.1) in Hernandez's starts.
What this basically means is that if you're in the Seattle rotation, you can't allow more than two runs in a typical start if you hope to get a win. As a matter of fact, the Mariners haven't scored more than three runs in their last eleven games. In further researching how tough it is to compile victories with this atrocious offense, it turns out that in games where the opposition scored at least four runs, the Mariners are an unheard of 6-64.
When you look at all the facts, how can you logically penalize Hernandez for his win total, when this pathetic excuse for a major league lineup (team averages: .236 BA, .300 OPB, .340 SLG) is the direct reason for it? Yankees fans are so concerned about Derek Jeter's poor season (.264 BA, .331 OBP, .373 SLG), but his numbers are better than seven players in the Mariners lineup, and his 60 RBI would make him Seattle's team leader.
My top three candidates for the AL Cy Young in order are Hernandez, Sabathia, and David Price. With the exception of wins, Hernandez leads these two competitors in every other major pitching category. Here's how they stack up:
Wins: Sabathia 19, Price 16, Hernandez 11
ERA: Hernandez 2.30, Price 2.92, Sabathia 3.02
WHIP: Hernandez 1.09, Sabathia 1.20, Price 1.24
BAA: Hernandez .219, Price .230, Sabathia .239
OBP: Hernandez .279, Sabathia .303, Price .306
SLG: Hernandez .318, Price .355, Sabathia .359
IP: Hernandez 219.1, Sabathia 202.2, Price 172.2
CG: Hernandez 5, Sabathia 2, Price 2
SO: Hernandez 209, Sabathia 165, Price 161
K/9: Hernandez 8.58, Price 8.39, Sabathia 7.33
K/BB: Hernandez 3.48, Sabathia 2.44. Price 2.40
BB: Hernandez 60, Sabathia 65, Price 67
BB/9: Hernandez 2.5, Sabathia 2.9, Price 3.5
H/9 Hernandez 7.3, Price 7.7, Sabathia 7.9
To further highlight how run support has played such a major role in this race, let's take a look at some eye-opening numbers on that subject.
Sabathia: 29 starts. Run support: 176. Average runs per start: 6.06
Price: 26 starts. Run support: 129. Average runs per start: 4.96
Hernandez: 30 starts. Run support: 95. Average runs per start: 3.16
Starts in which their team scored at least 5 runs: Sabathia 18, Price 15, Hernandez 7
Starts in which their team scored three runs or fewer: Hernandez 15, Price 8, Sabathia 4
Record in starts allowing a maximum of 3 earned runs: Sabathia 17-3 (3 no- decisions), Price 16-4 (3 no-decisions), Hernandez 11-7 (8 no-decisions).
Aside from win total, there is also the argument that Hernandez is under a lot less pressure pitching for a last-place team in Seattle than either Sabathia or Price, who are playing under the microscope for contenders. But based on what King Felix has done against the Yankees this season, I have a lot of trouble giving credence to that argument. He went into Yankee Stadium twice and completely dominated the defending world champs. In his first start, he threw a complete-game 2-hit shutout with 11 strikeouts. He followed up that performance with eight scoreless innings and another 11 strikeouts. And in his start against the Yankees in Seattle in front of a rare, near-sellout crowd, he pitched a complete game (126 pitches), allowing one run along with nine strikeouts.
As far as pitching under pressure, Hernandez, unlike his two competitors, goes to the mound every game knowing there is no margin for error. He's had to be near-flawless to get his 11 wins. His ERA in those games is a phenomenal 0.82. He's had nine no-decisions this season despite allowing a total of 14 runs in those games and pitching to a 1.91 ERA. Hernandez has pitched three games this season in which he's had a three-run lead after five innings, while Sabathia has been in fourteen such games. And Hernandez has been involved in eleven games where he had a three-run cushion at one point, while Sabathia has had that lead in twenty games. CC has the luxury of being in a lot more games in which every pitch doesn't count and one mistake can be very costly.
And why is anybody assuming Hernandez would crack under the pressure of playing in a big market for a contender? This hasn't affected the likes of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Clay Buchholz, and Jon Lester. So what evidence is there that Hernandez wouldn't thrive also?
Another argument in the Sabathia-Hernandez debate is that the Yankees play in the much tougher AL East, where wins are harder to come by. But the people that make that argument fail to look at the overall competition each pitcher has faced. They also leave out the fact that the weakest team in the AL West by far is the Mariners. And as far as I know they don't get to play themselves. In that same breath, CC never has to face the team with the best lineup in baseball, because he plays for them.
Within his own division this season, Sabathia has three starts against the Rays, four with the Red Sox, four versus the Orioles (pre-Buck Showalter) and none against the Blue Jays. The only other playoff contenders he's faced are the Rangers, Phillies, and White Sox, having started one game against each of them.
While Sabathia has had ten starts against top-level teams, Hernandez has significantly more with fifteen. King Felix has faced the Yankees (3 games), Rangers (4 games), Twins (2 games), White Sox (2 games), Padres (2 games), Red Sox (1 game), and Reds (1 game).
Sabathia is 5-1 with four no-decisions and a 3.52 ERA in those ten games. In his five wins the Yankees averaged eight runs per game and scored at least five runs in each of those starts. Hernandez is 7-5 with three no-decisions and a 2.41 ERA in his starts against playoff contenders. King Felix had two defeats and one no-decision where he gave up two earned runs in seven innings. And he had another no-decision in which he pitched eight scoreless innings.
And while we're mentioning how many tough opponents each pitcher has faced, shouldn't we mention the cupcakes too? Sabathia has eleven starts against the AL's four worst teams, while Hernandez only has six. Sabathia is 4-0 against the Orioles, 3-0 versus the Mariners, 2-0 against the Royals and 0-1 versus the Indians. Thus, nearly half of his 19 wins have come against some of the worst teams in baseball.
Hernandez has two starts each against the Orioles, Indians, and Royals. His combined ERA for those six games is 1.00, but he managed to go only 2-2. You have to wonder how you can pitch that well against such weak competition and come away with those results. Would you believe that darn run support issue was the problem in the two losses? The Mariners scored one run in each of those two games. In the two wins Hernandez notched, the M's exploded for four runs in one game and three in another. And in the two no-decisions, the bullpen decided to sabotage two excellent performances by Hernandez. He gave up one run in seven innings to the Orioles and left with a 5-1 lead, only to see Brandon League come in and give up five runs in the eighth. In the other no-decision, he pitched seven innings again, giving up two runs, and left with a 4-2 lead. But League blew another potential win for Hernandez by giving up two runs.
The bottom line here is that Felix Hernandez's season is a microcosm of the Mariners season. Seattle is third in the AL with a team ERA of 3.83 but is in last place in the West with a dreadful 54-84 record. The Yankees, meanwhile, are fifth in team ERA at 3.88, but sit atop the AL East with the major's best record at 86-52. It can't be any more obvious that runs do matter when it comes to winning games, especially when the case is this extreme, and Hernandez should not pay a price for it in the Cy Young vote. I think he's clearly been the best pitcher in the league and the numbers don't lie when he beats his closest competitor in every major statistical category besides wins.
Sabathia has had a terrific season, and, to me, is the Yankees MVP. But when you clearly examine the whole story in the Cy Young race, it's clear that "King Felix" should be crowned the winner.
<< Twins continue set with Royals
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Capturing a second straight American League Central title
may be the Minnesota Twins' main objective, but judging by the team's
performance at Target Field this season, having home-field advantage for the
opening round of the
<< Rookies to go head-to-head in Mets-Nationals clash
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With the Washington Nationals already looking ahead to next
year -- and maybe even 2012 given Stephen Strasburg's need for Tommy John
surgery -- a couple of young players are looking to show the team they can
contribute.
<< Lohse hoping to pitch Cardinals past Brewers
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Though the St. Louis Cardinals appear to be loaded at the
top of their pitching rotation, the back end could use some work.
Kyle Lohse gets a chance to claim his rotation spot this evening, when St.
Louis tries to gain mor
<< Week One Highlights
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Could the 2010 college football season
gotten off to a better start? It began with some of the nation's top teams
flexing their muscles. There were shootouts, defensive struggles and thrilling
overtime affair
Report: Patriots, Brady close to contract extension >>
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New England Patriots and quarterback Tom
Brady are reportedly on the verge of a three-year contract extension worth
close to $58 million.
The Boston Herald reports the deal is on the table for Brady,
NHL: Five burning Northwest Division questions >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Vancouver Canucks plowed through
the Northwest Division with a 15-7-2 mark en route to the third best record in
the Western Conference last season. However, their regular season success did
not trans
Toronto FC postseason hopes rest with defense >>
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's a story that Toronto FC fans have grown
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White undergoes surgery on torn right Achilles >>
DENVER (AP) - Broncos tailback LenDale White has undergone surgery to repair a ruptured right Achilles' tendon that will sideline him for the season.His uncle, Herman White, told The Associated Press on Tuesday that the operation ``went as expected'
BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
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